The Future of Cooperation in Space

The Russian invasion of Ukraine had worldwide consequences, as well as extra-terrestrial ones. Since the end of the Cold War – and even during its last decades- space has been a major area for cooperation among great powers, especially between the USA and the Russian Federation (including the Soviet Union). During the initial decades of the Cold War, space was seen as an arena where two superpowers showcased their technological prowess in ballistics and astronautics. However, after the American landing on the moon in 1969, there was not much left to compete over, also it became increasingly more costly to keep competing. As a result, both sides saw that it would be more logical to cooperate in the area of space exploration. This was signified with the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz mission which was both a literal and a symbolic handshake between the two space programs.

The Apollo-Soyuz mission laid the foundations for the International Space Station (ISS), which is arguably one of the greatest collective achievements of mankind. ISS started out as a joint undertaking by the Russian and American space agencies, and they were joined by the Canadian, European, and Japanese space agencies over the years. In its conception, the station was designed with co-dependence in mind, meaning that both the Russians and the Americans needed each other for the successful operation of the ISS. For example, the Russians are responsible for the orbital maneuvers which prevent the ISS from falling back to Earth. Also, since the culmination of the American Space Shuttle Program in 2011, Russian Soyuz rockets were the only way to reach the ISS. As the service life of the ISS neared its end, Russia felt more encouraged to use its advantageous position as a bargaining chip for political gain.

We saw an example of this in 2014 when Russia threatened to move its training facilities for the Soyuz rockets to Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014. As Russia held the keys to the doors to the ISS, threats like these hurt the spirit of cooperation which had grown immensely over the years. However, instead of staying reliant on the Russian rockets, NASA started to use the services of SpaceX for transportation to the ISS. Although, the fact that Russians have control of the ISS's orbit remains a problem, and several remarks by Dmitry Rogozin, Secretary-General of the Roscosmos (Russian Space Agency), indicate threats to leave the ISS partnership altogether and set up their own space station by themselves or with Chinese cooperation instead. China has been developing its own space program and space station for years since it was not allowed to take part in the ISS program and NASA is legally forbidden to share information with its Chinese colleagues. Sanctions towards Russia related to the war in Ukraine resulted in repercussions from the Russian side in the commercial and scientific aerospace deals, such as refusing to launch British-owned OneWeb satellites and withdrawing from joint scientific research aboard the ISS.

All these developments seem like negative signs for the future of international cooperation in space and the ISS. While there were plans to extend the service span of the ISS until the end of this decade, it looks extremely unlikely if current trends are to continue. Instead, it seems like we will see an increase in space station projects which are operated nationally. This would be a big step backward in an area that has successfully implemented international cooperation for the advancement of human exploration of space.